Who knows if China will exceed Germany in terms of GDP by 2007?

When I went to China, I was always impressed by the speed of its development. Nowadays only the Gulf can rival that. Some people have expressed bullish views on China, saying that its GDP will overtake Germany by this year. If that’s true, China will become the third largest economy in the world, behind US and Japan

Xinhua, the official national news agency, reported on July 19, 2007, that China’s GDP in 2006 was higher than prelimianry figures

The Chinese government last week revised the 2006 GDP up by 146.4 billion yuan over the preliminarily calculated figure to 21.0871 trillion yuan (2.7 trillion U.S. dollars), moving the country even closer to overtaking Germany as the third largest economy

Deutsche Bank predicted that China’s economy will grow significantly in 2007

Deutsche Bank has raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2007 to 10.7 percent from 10.0 percent, as a growing list of investment banks revise their outlook after strong activity in the first five months of the year

But whose opinions should you trust? The opinion markets?

As a student of economics, I believe the market is the best predictor. There is an opinion (or inkling) market on the Internet, where people trade a stock on whether China’s GDP will exceed that of Germany. The stock price indicates the probability that China’s GDP will exceed that of Germany by the end of 2007

Here is the “stock price”, i.e. probability of China’s GDP exceeding that of Germany by the end of 2007

Here is the historical trend for the past week. The market has not changed much on its belief that China will have a ~70% chance of becoming the world’s 3rd largest economy. The stock price has been quite stable, hovering around $70

If it turns out that China’s GDP is greater than Germany’s, the stock will pay $100. Otherwise, it will pay $0

Do you want to express your views? Buy or sell opinion stocks here. If you are positive that China will overtake Germany, buy the stock. If you are negative, sell it. Even if you’re neutral, you can trade. Say, if you think there’s a 50/50 chance that Germany will still be the world’s 3rd largest economy in 2007, sell the stock because the price implies a 30% chance. If you are good enough at predicting what others think, you don’t even have to wait until the date of information release to take profits

Don’t worry as you’re just playing with fake money. If it’s for real, the markets will probably be much more accurate, as people will put in much more thinking before betting

I bought some stocks on this (China will overtake Germany), how about you?

Views on growth of Chinese economy

Bullish views

Colby Buzzell on Shenzhen’s (a city in Southern China, the tip of the Pearl River Delta) development

It’s a city of eleven million that did not exist twenty years ago. Now it’s home to 11 million people with “hundreds of construction cranes stalking the landscape like dinosaurs

Birth of a new economic giant - China

In short, we are now poised for the greatest economic boom the world has ever experienced. With two primary locomotives driving the economic growth - China followed by India

Neutral / cautious / uncertain views

CHINESE ECONOMY Be careful what you wish for

Cheap imports from China have helped to hold down prices in America and other developed economies. However, a flurry of recent reports suggesting that Chinese wages and prices are surging have triggered fears that China is now exporting inflation, rather than deflation, to the rest of the world

Obstacles to taming the “Dirty Dragon”

As incomes rise China’s environmental record will improve. Corruption can be tamed. This however all takes time

Bearish views

Questioning China’s Rise

Mathematically, if the overall economy were to grow 10 percent annually, and the 70 percent of the economy that is based in rural areas was not growing, as stated by the Chinese government, the economy in Chinese cities would have to be growing by 33 percent a year. The urban economy is growing rapidly, but not at a 33 percent pace

The Nightmare Crash No One Talks About

The mitigating factors in the Communist Chinese economy will cause much more pain than a Goldman Sachs hedge fund defaulting someday

Sometimes it’s hard to find face-to-face language classes in your neighborhood. This is why many people are using the Internet to learn new languages

Following an earlier post titled Learning Arabic online, here I’d like to introduce 3 sites that offer free online classes in Shanghainese and Mandarin Chinese. I use them for revision

Shanghainese learning resources

520hai.com <http://www.520hai.com/shanghai/>

This is a collection free online classes for beginners in Shanghainese. The website supports Internet Explorer but has problems if you view it with Firefox. Highlight of the contents are

• Key phrases
• Explanation of differences between Mandarin Chinese and the Wu dialects (a category of dialects spoken in Eastern China - Shanghainese is one of the Wu dialects)
• Video tutorials (watch first lesson on simple greeting phrases used between family members)
• Mp3 webcast of key terms
• Shanghainese language textbooks used before 1949

ShanghaiNing.com <http://www.shanghaining.com/>

For those interested in using Shanghainese in a “hip” way, you can download some Shanghainese raps and songs here,and learn a new word each day. These 3 songs are particularly catchy

• Riding a Bus in Shanghai
• 99 Times in Love with Shanghai
• KTV Girls in Shanghai

Chinese learning resources

CSLpod <http://cslpod.com>

It is run by a small team of enthusiastic Chinese people which is designed to help people improve their Chinese skills. It has podcasts for beginning, intermediate and advanced levels. The contents are updated every day, so you can hear up-to-date news articles read by Chinese voices, with transcripts included

In an earlier article Votes from the Internet - the Most popular Middle Eastern Gulf country, I talked about the popularity of different Gulf countries using a keyword research tool. Dubai is the clear top choice. To push the idea forward, here I’d like to talk about what governments can do to promote their country on the Internet

Why should governments care about online promotion? It is important from Nationals identity perspective!

The Middle East gives a not-so-good impression to foreigners. Let’s look at the numbers

Top keywords associated with the Middle East or Africa or Iraq

It is a pity that all the top 10 keywords related to the Middle East, Africa and Iraq are negative associations. Because of sampling methodology, this may not represent the views of most Internet users, but it does reflect the views of a large number of Internet users. To change how their countries are perceived by foreigners, governments in the Middle East should act

Other benefits from promoting a country online

To name a few, governments can benefit from

• Increased foreign investment
• More tourists and higher tourism spending
• Improved foreign relations

What governments should do - use online marketing techniques like businesses do

It is not rocket science. Governments can take simple steps to promote their countries online

• Create English websites for government departments. Websites of many ministries are in Arabic. One example is Kuwait’s Ministry of Planning. It provides very useful information about the Kuwaiti economy for businesses and potential investors. Yet the information is only in Arabic. The English version has little information, and it was updated in 2001
• Advertise on the Internet targeting specific keywords. Dubai is attracting lots of Internet traffic. If another Gulf country wants to increase its exposure, one good way is to target keywords related to Dubai. If a place like Qatar is competing with Dubai for businesses and tourists, it should advertise on search engines, and aim to display Qatar websites when people search for Dubai keywords. These are the top 10 keywords on Dubai that other Gulf countries can target
  • Dubai
  • Cheap flights Dubai
  • Dubai map
  • Burj Dubai
  • Jobs in Dubai
  • Dubai jobs
  • Dubai hotels
  • Jobs opportunities in Dubai
  • Map of Dubai
  • Dubai hotel
• Create portals to promote their countries. If I google Qatar, Qatar Airways shows up on top. This shouldn’t be the case when a government is serious about promoting its country. On this aspect, Gulf countries can learn from Singapore. If I type Singapore on google, the first result is an official government portal promoting tourism called Uniquely Singapore. The third result is called Singapore Infomap, an all-purpose portal for foreigners interested in playing, working, studying and doing business in Singapore. It is run by the Ministry of Information, Communications and the Arts

Online promotion needs to be met by offline delivery

If a government really takes the steps to promote their country online, perhaps a country like Bahrain can match the popularity of Dubai with relatively little efforts, at least on the Internet. More importantly, online marketing should be met by actual experience. From the moment when visitors come to a country, they should be able to experience good hospitality. Again, Dubai’s e-Gate is a great success

Read what other bloggers write about the Middle East, some posts touch the government’s stance towards the Internet (good and bad, un-censored and un-official, but these are the stories they tell over the Internet)

Crosswords Arabia

The same technology that enables liberalization and democratization also enables terrorism. Programs that provide almost perfect encryption to reformists in China also hide information about terrorists

An Englishman In Saudi Arabia

Dear Saudis, be ashamed. Be very ashamed. You’re almost as fat as the British and we’re one of the fattest groups of fat fatties you’ve ever seen

Internet Anthropologist CEO

The Saudi Ministry of Islamic Affairs has announced the upcoming launch of a website aimed at fighting extremism and to reform individuals with extremist views. The website, which will have sections in Arabic and in English, is aimed at Muslim audiences worldwide

Expositions of Arabia

Whereas before the advent of the internet, poorly paid expatriate workers were forced to use the services of the MOC to call home at expensive rates to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines to name a few places, they now have the opportunity to use cheap internet telephony such as Net2Phone or international calling cards that connect through the internet. However, the MOC has criminalized the use of such services and blocked access to websites of internet telephone services

Deera Chat

Here in Kuwait we have all the basic components we need to have a free internet service for every single person living in the Kuwaiti soul … so why it is not happening and what it happens, how it would benefit me and you?!

Boycott Batelco

The Bahrain Internet Society will be hosting Fahad Al-Shirawi, the managing director of 2Connect at the BIS’ premises in Umm Al-Hassam tomorrow evening (18 June) from 1900 - 2100 to talk about his company’s offering Internet for free in Bahrain

Harith Digest

Oman plans to license several new Internet service providers, in a further liberalisation of its telecommunications sector, state news agency ONA said on Friday

Which is the most popular country among the 6 Middle Eastern Gulf states?

Bahrain? Kuwait? Oman? Qatar? Saudi Arabia? Or the United Arab Emirates?

Everybody has a different answer in their mind. I did a little keyword research to find out what Internet users think. Here are the results generated by a tool called Wordtracker Free Keyword Suggestion Tool

Voice of the Internet - Dubai, Dubai, Dubai

Surprising? Dubai, which is a small emirate (not even a nation), attracts almost as much traffic of all other countries combined. Saudi Arabia, which exports more oil than any other country in the world, is far behind. Another noteworthy observation is that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the country in which Dubai belongs to, attracts only 1/10 of the attention that Dubai does

Note that the Wordtracker network only captures a small portion of web searches, so the absolute number of daily searches is probably much higher. Relative to each other, the ranking tells a good story about popularity of Gulf countries against English-speaking Internet users. My guess is that, if the searches were done in Arabic, Saudi Arabia will be number 1, due to the sheer size of its population

Why is Saudi more popular than Oman? Is it related to GDP? No

I tried to uncover what is driving the frequency of searches. Let’s first look at the GDP of the 6 countries by digging through the World Bank database

Saudi, by virtue of its massive oil reserves, is clearly the largest country in terms of GDP. While data is not available for Dubai, it’s reasonable to assume that Saudi has at least 3 times the GDP of Dubai. This is because the Dubai is the 2nd largest among the 7 emirates within the UAE (Abu Dhabi is the largest), while the whole of UAE’s GDP is USD130 billion

Money does not translate into more interest by web surfers. What attracts their attention then?

Is it related to population? No

If a country has more people, this should result in more interactions with them by the outside world. Is it true? Another World Bank database tells the story

The fact that Qatar’s population is less than 1/3 of Kuwait doesn’t deter it from being a more sought after place by Internet users. A similar contrast can be drawn between Bahrain and Oman. Clearly, other factors play a key role in attracting Internet users to websites of one country over another

Internet users should surf the sites less-traveled

Beyond the symbolic Dubai, there are lots of places worth looking at. They have rich cultural traditions, diverse populations, and huge economic potential. It’s always good to exchange ideas with websites in Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. You will learn a lot from them, and discover their unique charm

If you want to know more about lives in the Middle East, here are a few blogs that talk about the 6 Middle Eastern Gulf countries

Oman Community Blog - latest developments, good and bad, of the country

“Omanis in general are diverse and their experiences are assorted. My views come to you from across the world, usually in the form of a proud Omani looking at the developments and change from far away”

Bahrain For Ever - Views on Bahrain’s social and political issues

“Now I refuse to believe that all Bahrainis won’t work as labor. Just look at ALBA for example, they work in the heat of August and in front of melting Aluminum pots, much worst then construction, yet most of the workers there are Bahrainis”

Cat in the Gulf - life in Qatar and Dubai, mainly on the lighter topics

“Some things in life can be truly learned only by your own experience. Here is some midnight knowledge for you:

1. The opposite of love isn’t hate.
2. Desperate Housewives and Godfather have answers to all possible midnight questions”

Forza Kuwait - Kuwaiti with some free time and much internet browsing

“In an Interview with Alwatan Daily in Kuwait for the Week Topic ( which was about blogging , more like attacking bloggers ) , the Secretary of the Kuwaiti Journalists Association said what is on his mind about bloggers .
which is amazing what he think of blogs , and how many times he show that he demand they be closed or controlled , and that coming from a guy who is supposed to ask for more freedom of speech is priceless irony”

Saudi Jeans - Blog on Saudi, from Saudi

While working on this blog over the past three years, many people have complained to me about the small number of available resources on Saudi Arabia in English, online and offline alike. I think this is one of the reasons behind the increasing popularity of Saudi blogs, mine included

UAE Community Blog - voice of the community

No more sex in dubai
It appears Etisalat has decided to block the popular blog Sex and Dubai

I have always wanted to travel to the less well-known places, places that are not popular tourist destinations. In a globalizing world, the opportunity to travel will only increase

The challenges in living in a foreign culture are enormous. So why not share some lessons leant?

Idea of making a blog

To share information with a group of people living in different parts of the world, I was looking for a medium that is easy to use and is interactive. As I’m not a technical person, an ordinary website will be too hard for me. Blog is then the natural platform

Idea translated into action

Initially, I didn’t know how to start, until a friend recommended the Blogger’s online blog platform. I have my old blog there, at http://bordercrossed.blogspot.com. After a while, I realized I wanted to make it better, and started researching on how to do it

I came across a 50-page pdf guide on how to make a better blog, the Blog Profits Blueprint (affiliate link) by Yaro Starak. There I learnt some tips to make my blog better. The original goal of Blog Profits Blueprint is to help people make money using blogs. But it serves my purpose of building a good blog to reach a broad audience well. The best thing is that it’s free and comprehensive, sparing me from searching different websites for piecemeal advice

Hungry for more, I have decided to join Yaro’s blog mentoring program (affiliate link), an online course, to learn how to make Borders Crossed a better blog. I joined the program 2 weeks ago and it’s been going well

What other people say about Blog Profits Blueprint and Yaro’s blog mentoring program

Art of money - Online Business - Inside Out

“He knows blogging and he knows online business inside out. Secretly I hate him because he makes way more money than me, and he’s about half my age :)”

Chris Sandberg’s Internet Business Blog

“… even though a lot a what he was writing about was stuff I already knew, Yaro organized and presented it in such a way as to emphasize the most important aspects of pro blogging.”

TopCat Blog - My Thoughts on the internet world

“Overall, I enjoyed reading this book. Yaro didn’t touch on the technical aspects of blogging at all (i.e., what Wordpress plugins to use, etc). Instead, he laid out steps for selecting topics, writing posts, and blog marketing.”

Rajesh Shakya - helping technopreneurs excel and lead their life

“I liked the way, Yaro provokates about the pillar articles (contents) as the most essential requirement for the success of th blogs.”

Viral Voices - “Blog Profit Blueprint” in Action!

“This blog is set out to test the strategies and tactics as outlined in Yaro’s e-book, and therefore, yes, it is set out to achieve effective blogging, in return of which I can earn some money, thus proving that, yes, Yaro’s blueprint works!”

I dread going to the dentist, especially the lying on the dentist chair watching scalpels moving in and out of my mouth. I know it is a necessary evil, but at least I want to lessen the pain

Visiting the dentist in Kuwait - Summary

I have recently visited the Gulf Clinic in Kuwait City. It’s the least painful dental visit I’ve had in the Gulf. For an business traveler in need of dental help, I believe this is as good as one can get

Dentist

Dr. Aneesa, a Kuwaiti national, did the major operation (I don’t want to go into details…). She patiently explained what she’s about to do before working on it, which helps

Nurses

Initially, a junior nurse was trying to help. Apparently she didn’t know how to operate the machine. That made me feel nervous. Later on a senior nurse came by and took over. The pain was still there when they’re cleaning the gum. Just that their friendly attitute made me feel less nervous

Prices

KD 85 (~USD 300) for the whole thing - expensive for a minor job. Still, I’d rather pay than go to some public hospitals, queue up receive horrible treatment

Contact

It’s not difficult to schedule an appointment by calling 563-0002. There are English-speaking receptionists

Location

It is 15 minutes from the major centers of Kuwait City. Go to their website to check it out

Other bloggers talking about their dental experience in Kuwait - mostly bad, some good

Hugs from Kuwait - horror story. I hope it won’t happen again

“My first experience at the dentist’s in Kuwait was horrendous. I went to the government clinic. The doctor gave me like 4 shots of anesthesia but I could still feel the pain. She did not believe me and held my head down while she drilled. Meanwhile, the nurse had that suction pipe on the other side of my mouth.”

Hugs from Kuwait - another bad experience

“The only thing they did was charge me 10KD to open a file and another 7 KD to take an X-ray. Then, the doctor said that I need to see a specialist. She recommended another dental clinic. So, I was out 17KD and for nothing!”

A leaf from my journal… - Dentist from devil’s kingdom …

“Visiting a doctor in Kuwait is always more painful than the ailment itself. By pain, I am referring to the mental trauma one has to go through during these visits. All the more so when the doctor is an Arab. They’re very unbiased I feel, don’t make a damn difference between humans and animals!”

Mark and Nat, a married Lebanese couple who are living in Kuwait - Finally, some good experience

“He is a cool dentist and has a sense of humor which is why I keep going back to him. For anyone who’s interested I go to the Bayan Dental Center in Salmiya opposite Sultan Center.”

The health of Kuwait - a wake up call (Part IV) - situation of public health care system in Kuwait

“Due to an excessive workload and time constraints, our clinic practitioners rarely follow their patients and are often unable to request certain basic diagnostic tests typically part of the armamentarium of such providers.”

Have you experienced standing in queues at the Dubai airport waiting to get through immigration?

Something called e-Gate will save you from that hassle every time you get through Dubai immigration

What is e-gate and why you should use it?

You probably have noticed some part of the immigration look like a subway station - instead of going to see customs officers, passengers walk pass a row of automatic gates after scanning their cards

This is the power of e-Gate and its smart card. It helps you save time and preserve your dignity

• Time - My personal experience tells me it saves 20 minutes from waiting at the super-crowded Economy class departure hall. On arrival, it saves 20 minutes
• Risks of being delayed - I have been delayed by immigration officers, perhaps because they see stamps from countries that’d suggest suspicious behavior. The e-Gate will solve this problem because you don’t have to show your passport
• Passport space - Not having to show your passport will save you some valuable space for other trips - bear in mind every 4 UAE stamp fill a page on the passport
• Physchological benefits - Don’t you feel happy and privileged when you can get through immigration in a split second?

How can you get it?

• You must first be in Dubai. They’ll approve applications even if you’re a visitor! The good news is that you don’t have to be a Dubai resident
• When you go to the Dubai airport for your next departure, arrive 10 minutes earlier than usual
• Go to the Emirates Airport economy class (non-US destinations) departure hall. Head to the 2nd floor. Follow the big signs to the e-Gate office
• The e-Gate staff will help you with the process. You only need to bring your passport and pay AED 200 (~USD 50). Your card will be ready in 10 minutes and you can try it out at the departure gate!
• Or if you want to do it in town, call the Dubai Airline Center at +971-4-3166-966 and find out their locations

What do others say?

Other travelers have written about e-Gates. Here are what they said

World of Pradeep - an Expat living in Dubai

“Anyways thanks to Egate card I dont have to wait on long ques and I can quicky exit from the emmigration counters…”

Chris Saul’s Blog

“eGate is utterly brilliant - every Dubai resident should get one, regardless of how often they fly”

Hiroex - Japanese expat in Dubai

“有効期間は2年間で発行手数料200Dhs（約6,000円）はちょっと高いけど、ただでさえ夜中早朝発着の多いドバイ空港を待ち時間なしにスマートに通れるのならその価値もありですね”

An English Man in Dubai - as a frequent traveler, he reveals what is in his bag

“E-Gate card – the best thing I thing the Dubai authorities have ever introduced for whizzing through immigration at Dubai airport”